Brent Kraus comments in Lexpert's Special Edition on Energy on what we've seen so far in 2025—and what might be next for energy M&A activity in Canada. The landscape this year has been one of uncertainty, driven by US tariffs and trade policy—but there's also optimism that dealmaking sentiment is improving.
Brent says that volatility and uncertainty have been a drag on dealmaking, as “M&A requires a level of predictability. Buyers want to understand the long-term outlook of the assets they are acquiring. In times of uncertainty, those models become more difficult to build and assess. This can result in hesitation and a reduced volume of transactions.”
He notes that amidst this uncertainty, some companies have become more inwardly focused, revisiting their capital budgets and operational strategies rather than actively pursuing new acquisitions.
Brent points out that the M&A market has not entirely dried up, with some transactions being finalized. Most of these are those that were already in the pipeline from the previous year or ones that strongly align with a company’s long-term business strategies. In addition, sentiment has improved as the year has progressed and when desirable assets or companies have come to market, there has been robust interest.
Brent tells Lexpert there is also renewed—albeit cautious—interest from new entrants into the Canadian energy space, including US-based investors and private equity firms. Though activity has yet to reach high volumes, this growing interest could signal more deals if trade and regulatory uncertainties begin to ease.
“Our sense is that if we start to see resolution to these matters, hopefully over the summer, there’s enough pent-up interest that the last half of this year could be very active.”
